Modelling diapause termination and phenology of the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica

Abstract We deve?loped a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica . The simulates influence soil temperature on larval diapause termination and development rate function post-overwintering larvae pupae. Model parameters are estimated based literature evidence for pupae parameterisation process that allows estimating (and related uncertainty) larvae. Data used validation refer to time-series adult trap catches collected during P. monitoring programme performed by Phytosanitary Service Lombardy Region within infested area in (Italy) from 2015 2019. A total 12 randomly selected locations estimate biologically realistic (parameterisation dataset). applied Jackknife nonparametric resampling procedure dataset quantify uncertainty associated with parameters’ estimates. Parameterised is then validated data referring different set (validation dataset) surveyed Lombardy. successfully predicted beginning emergence overall curve dataset. presented can support definition best timing implementation control activities local area-wide management